Τετάρτη, 10 Σεπτεμβρίου 2014

Contents

  • 1 Introduction.......................................... 1
    Part I The European Crisis
  • 2  The Evolution and the Current Status of the European FinancialCrisis....................................... 7 
    • 2.1  EvolutionoftheEuropeanUnion ....................... 7 
    • 2.2  TheHistoricalEvolutionoftheCrisis .................... 13 
    • 2.3  AnInitialApproachtotheCrisis ....................... 16 
  • References............................................ 20 
  • 3  TheGreatEuropeanRecession ........................... 21 
    • 3.1  TheCostsoftheGreatRecession ....................... 22 
    • 3.2  TheRedistributionConsequences ....................... 25 
    • 3.3  TheComebackLagandtheDivergenceEvolution ........... 30 
  • References............................................ 31 
Part II The Structural Elements of the Crisis
  • 4  TheEuropeanSuboptimalandSegmentAreas ............... 35 
    • 4.1  TheLimitationsofEurozoneMemberCountries ............ 36 
    • 4.2  TheSegmentedEconomicandSocialAreas ............... 38 
  • References............................................ 42 
  • 5  EuropeanStockAsymmetries ............................ 43 
    • 5.1  PopulationandGeostrategyAsymmetries ................. 43 
      • 5.1.1  PopulationBalances ........................... 44 
      • 5.1.2  GeostrategyBalances .......................... 47 
    • 5.2  TheEconomicStockImbalances ....................... 48 
      • 5.2.1  Debt:PublicandPrivate ........................ 48 
      • 5.2.2  TangibleandIntangibleAssets ................... 49 
  • References............................................ 51 
6 EuropeanFlowImbalances .............................. 53
  • 6.1  PublicDeficits..................................... 53 
  • 6.2  TheExternalAccounts ............................... 54 
  • 6.3  SavingsandInvestments ............................. 58 
  • 6.4  EmploymentandInflation ............................ 59 
  • 6.5  TheCompetitivenessImbalances ....................... 60
    References............................................ 64
7 Culture, Institutions and Politics as Crisis Generators . . . . . . . . . . 65
  • 7.1  CulturalBackground ................................ 65 
  • 7.2  PoliticalBalances .................................. 67 
  • 7.3  Governance....................................... 70 
  • 7.4  InstitutionsandIncentives ............................ 71
    References............................................ 75
Part III The Policy Response
  • 8  TheGrowthLagandStrategicChoices ..................... 81 
    • 8.1  TheLong-TermGrowthLag .......................... 81 
    • 8.2  TheGrowthPriorities ............................... 83 
    • 8.3  The Attainment of Long-Term Competitiveness and Export
      Orientation....................................... 84 
    • 8.4  TheBank-BasedGrowth ............................. 87 
    • 8.5  DebtManagement.................................. 88 
  • References............................................ 94 
  • 9  FiscalPolicyandConsolidation ........................... 97 
    • 9.1  TheEffectivenessofFiscalPolicy ...................... 97 
    • 9.2  Contractionary or Expansionary Austerity Policy . . . . . . . . . . . . 99 
    • 9.3  Tax-Based Versus Spending-Based Fiscal Consolidations . . . . . 101 
    • 9.4  TheSizeofFiscalMultipliers .......................... 102 
    • 9.5  FiscalTighteninginaLiquidityTrap .................... 104 
    • 9.6  TheRoleofPerceivedRiskofSovereignDebt............. 105 
    • 9.7  CanAusterityBeSelf-Defeating? ....................... 106 
    • 9.8  Synchronized Fiscal Consolidations and Spillover Effects . . . . . 109 
    • 9.9  FiscalConsolidationProgramsAftertheEuro .............. 110 
  • References............................................ 115 
  • 10  TheSupplySidePolicies ................................ 119 
    • 10.1  SupplySideRationale .............................. 119 
    • 10.2  StructuralReforms ................................. 120 
    • 10.3  The Required Adjustment and the Adjustment Speed . . . . . . . . 123 
    • 10.4  The Effectiveness of Economic Policy in Europe . . . . . . . . . . . 126 
  • References............................................ 131 
  • 11  MonetaryPolicy....................................... 133 
    • 11.1  TheImbalancedMonetaryPolicy ...................... 133 
    • 11.2  RebalancingandInflation ............................ 137 
    • 11.3  The Effectiveness of Monetary Policy and the
      LiquidityTrap.................................... 140 
    • 11.4  TheFinancialTransactionTax ........................ 141 
  • References............................................ 142 
  • 12  ThePolicyoftheEuropeanCentralBank ................... 145 
    • 12.1  TheOpenMarketOperations ......................... 145 
    • 12.2  TheECBasaTreatyChanger ........................ 149 
    • 12.3  TheMultipleBondEquilibria ......................... 150 
    • 12.4  TheEuro’sConfidence .............................. 153 
    • 12.5  TheRoleoftheLenderofLastResort .................. 155 
  • References............................................ 158 
  • 13  Restoration of the Banking System and the Banking DeleveragingProcess ................................... 159 
    • 13.1  ContagionandSystemicRisk ......................... 159 
    • 13.2  TheFinancialMarketFragmentation .................... 161 
    • 13.3  WeakEuropeanBanks .............................. 163 
    • 13.4  The Credit Crunch and the Financing of the Real Economy . . . 165 
    • 13.5  TheDeleveragingProcess ........................... 166 
  • References............................................ 173 
  • 14  TheRoleoftheIMFintheEuropeanEvolution.............. 177 
    • 14.1  TheCharacteroftheIMF ............................ 177 
    • 14.2  Global Financial Governance and the IMF’s Role . . . . . . . . . . 181 
    • 14.3  TheIMFinEurope................................ 181 
    • 14.4  TheIMFandSovereignDebtManagement ............... 183 
    • 14.5  ConditionalityandSupply-SidePolicies ................. 185 
    • 14.6  TheIMFandDomesticPolicies ....................... 187 
  • References............................................ 189 
Part IV The Political Economy of European Synthesis and the Medium Future
15 DebatesandChoices .................................... 193
  • 15.1  The Political Economy Approach: Ideas and Cultural
    BackgroundDiversification .......................... 193 
  • 15.2  TheCriticalDebates ............................... 195 
  • 15.3  TheSocialModelControversy ........................ 198 
References............................................ 201

  • 16  TheEuropeanSynthesis ................................. 203 
    • 16.1  TheEuropeanResponsetotheCrisis ................... 203 
    • 16.2  FiscalandMacroManagement ........................ 204 
    • 16.3  Financial Stabilization, Banking Sector Reorganization and
      theDeleveragingSchedule ........................... 206 
    • 16.4  TheStructuralReadjustment .......................... 213 
  • References............................................ 221 
  • 17  TheMedium-TermFuturefortheWorldandEurope .......... 223 
    • 17.1  The Medium-Term Future for the World: 2015–2025 . . . . . . . . 223 
    • 17.2  TheTwoPotentialWorlds ........................... 226 
    • 17.3  TheEuropeanEvolution ............................. 228 
  • References............................................ 232 
  • 18  EconomyandPolitics ................................... 235 
    • 18.1  An Integrated Approach to the Crisis and Politics . . . . . . . . . . 235 
    • 18.2  ThePoliticalEconomyoftheEuropeanCrisis ............. 239 
      • 18.2.1  Geostrategic Issues and Economic Nationalism . . . . . . 239 
      • 18.2.2  Beggar-Thy-NeighborPolicies .................. 243 
      • 18.2.3  The Euro as an Exchange and Reserve Currency and
        theInternalRepercussions ..................... 244 
      • 18.2.4  The Democratic Deficit and Monetary Policy . . . . . . . 245 
      • 18.2.5  PoliticalShiftandEconomicPolicy .............. 247 
      • 18.2.6  Towards an Indebted Fragmented European
        Federation................................. 249 
  • References............................................ 258 


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